Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:14 am at St Louis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3406 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:45	MKE 23:00	16%	5%	0.5%	71%
WN 1561 Southwest	STL 21:50	MKE 23:14	16%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	7h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 11:18 → MSP 12:55DL 3188	59m Minneapolis	MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006	3h 51m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343	5h 43m	98%	81%
United Details →	STL 09:20 → ORD 10:52UA 5572 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 13:30 → MKE 14:36UA 5933 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → MKE 21:41DL 4468 · flown by SkyWest	5h 44m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	STL 17:35 → BNA 18:45WN 694	3h 55m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → MKE 00:20 +1WN 4519	6h 45m	100%	80%
United Details →	STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet	3h 44m Chicago	ORD 15:36 → MKE 16:42UA 5345 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	STL 11:00 → BWI 14:05WN 4614	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 16:15 → MKE 17:22WN 2872	6h 22m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 11:25 → ORD 13:03UA 4395 · flown by GoJet	59m Chicago	ORD 14:02 → MKE 14:51UA 5668 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON