Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1597 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1597 STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 4167 STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1597 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:21	MSP 07:56	3%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3188 Delta Flight history →	STL 11:18	MSP 12:55	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1289 Delta	STL 11:23	MSP 13:05	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 286 Southwest	STL 08:30	MSP 10:10	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3961 Southwest Flight history →	STL 08:15	MSP 09:45	7%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 3185 Delta Flight history →	STL 17:36	MSP 19:15	8%	3%	0.6%	72%
WN 4880 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:45	MSP 23:20	14%	4%	0.5%	50%
DL 4167 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 15:57	MSP 17:37	19%	5%	0.5%	64%
DL 5325 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:49	MSP 10:30	23%	9%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON