Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:39 pm at St Louis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 3027 at 16:35, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3027 Southwest Flight history →	STL 16:35	MYR 19:30	26%	9%	0.1%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	STL 15:35 → MDW 16:40WN 556	3h 05m Chicago	MDW 19:45 → MYR 22:50WN 36	6h 15m	100%	78%
American Details →	STL 15:46 → DFW 17:11AA 1363	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → MYR 23:16AA 4019 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	6h 01m	99%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON