Today: YX 4360 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–30%.

Safest bet today YX 4360 STL 06:30 → ORD 08:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 541 STL 17:33 → ORD 18:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4360 Republic	STL 06:30	ORD 08:04	5%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 2805 United Flight history →	STL 06:00	ORD 07:30	8%	3%	0.4%	89%
AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 09:08	ORD 10:36	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 1926 American Flight history →	STL 04:52	ORD 06:17	10%	6%	0.3%	74%
AA 1997 American Flight history →	STL 07:33	ORD 08:57	11%	5%	0.2%	88%
AA 4537 American flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 17:58	ORD 19:59	13%	4%	0.7%	79%
UA 5572 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 09:20	ORD 10:52	14%	7%	0.5%	74%
AA 3815 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 14:31	ORD 15:59	14%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 1920 United	STL 13:31	ORD 14:59	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1382 United Flight history →	STL 13:13	ORD 14:43	17%	6%	0.6%	71%
AA 2208 American	STL 11:35	ORD 12:54	19%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STL 19:56	ORD 21:33	19%	5%	0.7%	59%
UA 2792 United	STL 08:07	ORD 09:26	21%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 13:16	ORD 14:49	22%	10%	0.7%	65%
MQ 4259 Envoy	STL 17:28	ORD 18:43	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1639 United Flight history →	STL 17:59	ORD 19:30	25%	7%	0.6%	66%
OO 5332 SkyWest	STL 15:19	ORD 16:50	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 6468 SkyWest	STL 13:16	ORD 14:41	27%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 541 United	STL 17:33	ORD 18:58	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4517 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 10:20	ORD 11:52	10%	1%	1.4%	90%
UA 4423 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 07:20	ORD 09:00	14%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 4183 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:00	ORD 09:35	28%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 4395 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 11:25	ORD 13:03	29%	12%	2.8%	71%
UA 4165 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 19:05	ORD 20:39	30%	12%	5.7%	70%
UA 4452 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 15:22	ORD 17:00	37%	17%	5.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON