Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:05 am at St Louis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 1538 Alaska Flight history →	STL 17:37	PDX 19:47	13%	3%	0.7%	88%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	6h 20m	96%	90%
United Details →	STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362	1h 33m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247	6h 37m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 11:18 → MSP 12:55DL 3188	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 17m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909	1h 41m Denver	DEN 08:31 → PDX 10:14WN 3459	6h 39m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	STL 06:10 → LAS 07:35WN 3934	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132	7h 30m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → PDX 12:25WN 2809	8h 45m	100%	88%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994	7h 38m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 17:36 → MSP 19:15DL 3185	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18DL 2391	7h 42m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest	57m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	6h 18m	70%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON