Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3222 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3222 STL 10:00 → PHL 13:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4401 STL 19:50 → PHL 23:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3222 Southwest Flight history →	STL 10:00	PHL 13:10	9%	2%	0.5%	88%
AA 1308 American Flight history →	STL 06:14	PHL 09:34	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 1109 Southwest	STL 10:40	PHL 14:01	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1739 American Flight history →	STL 11:12	PHL 14:35	15%	6%	1.3%	83%
AA 2720 American Flight history →	STL 11:15	PHL 14:34	15%	6%	1.8%	90%
WN 3966 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:40	PHL 23:55	19%	5%	0.5%	50%
AA 2714 American Flight history →	STL 17:48	PHL 21:10	20%	7%	1.6%	73%
AA 3049 American Flight history →	STL 17:44	PHL 21:09	21%	9%	1.6%	67%
WN 4401 Southwest	STL 19:50	PHL 23:19	22%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON