Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:00 am at St Louis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3972 Southwest Flight history →	STL 19:55	PIT 22:35	21%	6%	0.1%	62%
WN 4917 Southwest	STL 19:55	PIT 22:42	22%	6%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 11:18 → MSP 12:55DL 3188	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → PIT 18:40DL 3709 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	100%	82%
American Details →	STL 17:58 → ORD 19:59AA 4537 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 21:08 → PIT 23:52AA 4539 · flown by Republic	4h 54m	91%	82%
American Details →	STL 14:31 → ORD 15:59AA 3815 · flown by Envoy	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 18:45 → PIT 21:30AA 4569 · flown by Republic	5h 59m	94%	81%
United Details →	STL 17:59 → ORD 19:30UA 1639	1h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic	5h 00m	89%	80%
United Details →	STL 13:13 → ORD 14:43UA 1382	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946	6h 38m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	STL 15:35 → MDW 16:40WN 556	2h 58m Chicago	MDW 19:38 → PIT 22:09WN 4803	5h 34m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	6h 56m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → PIT 23:10DL 3075	6h 13m	94%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → PIT 20:51UA 1946	4h 29m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON