Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:42 pm at St Louis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 279 at 14:55, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 279 Southwest Flight history →	STL 14:55	PNS 16:40	24%	4%	0.6%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 15:58 → ATL 18:43DL 2700	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086	5h 49m	97%	71%
United Details →	STL 14:57 → IAH 17:16UA 5580 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Houston	IAH 20:20 → PNS 22:01UA 497	7h 04m	91%	64%
American Details →	STL 15:46 → DFW 17:11AA 1363	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	6h 36m	97%	53%
Southwest Details →	STL 17:40 → HOU 19:45WN 5065	1h 35m Houston	HOU 21:20 → PNS 23:03WN 3674	5h 23m	82%	52%
American Details →	STL 18:13 → CLT 21:11AA 2731	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → PNS 23:46AA 1007	5h 33m	94%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STL 17:13 → DFW 19:15AA 2712	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA	5h 09m	54%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON