Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: WN 1110 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet today WN 1110 STL 05:55 → RSW 09:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4831 STL 20:00 → RSW 23:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1110 Southwest	STL 05:55	RSW 09:31	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4940 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:55	RSW 13:25	10%	2%	0.2%	88%
WN 4122 Southwest	STL 20:25	RSW 00:03	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4831 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:00	RSW 23:30	17%	6%	0.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON