Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:53 am at St Louis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 654 at 12:20, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 654 Southwest Flight history →	STL 12:20	SAV 15:15	16%	3%	0.3%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Savannah is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa	1h 30m Houston	IAH 14:55 → SAV 18:22UA 6355 · flown by Mesa	6h 12m	95%	83%
American Details →	STL 11:00 → MIA 14:46AA 3954 · flown by Envoy	1h 27m Miami	MIA 16:13 → SAV 17:52AA 3782 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → SAV 23:53DL 2860	5h 59m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	STL 11:00 → BWI 14:05WN 4614	2h 50m Baltimore	BWI 16:55 → SAV 18:55WN 423	6h 55m	99%	74%
United Details →	STL 13:13 → ORD 14:43UA 1382	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 17:18 → SAV 20:38UA 1191	6h 25m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	STL 15:58 → ATL 18:43DL 2700	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:40 → SAV 22:49DL 3168	5h 51m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425	6h 55m	99%	69%
American Details →	STL 11:03 → CLT 13:54AA 3096	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 15:46 → SAV 17:07AA 6119 · flown by Piedmont	5h 04m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 14:57 → IAH 17:16UA 5580 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Houston	IAH 18:28 → SAV 21:55UA 6111 · flown by Mesa	5h 58m	74%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON