tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:25 am at St Louis); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 618 STL 14:50 → SEA 17:17 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 3981 STL 11:40 → SEA 13:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
AS 618 Alaska Flight history → STL 14:50 SEA 17:17 16% 6% 0.8% 87%
AS 314 Alaska Flight history → STL 16:44 SEA 19:01 18% 5% 0.8% 89%
AS 647 Alaska Flight history → STL 19:56 SEA 22:24 19% 5% 0.6% 74%
WN 3981 Southwest Flight history → STL 11:40 SEA 13:55 20% 3% 0.2% 49%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380 58m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 6h 21m 88% 66%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 51m Denver DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424 6h 15m 78% 58%
SouthwestDetails → STL 16:00 → DEN 17:20WN 3912 1h 10m Denver DEN 18:30 → SEA 20:15WN 1769 6h 15m 88% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON