Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:26 am at St Louis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 09:25, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 4931 Southwest	STL 08:30	SFO 10:49	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2482 United Flight history →	STL 19:23	SFO 21:43	31%	9%	0.2%	26%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 17:36 → MSP 19:15DL 3185	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089	8h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	9h 42m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	STL 17:37 → PDX 19:47AS 1538	1h 46m Portland	PDX 21:33 → SFO 23:24AS 697	7h 47m	100%	79%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	2h 55m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	8h 03m	98%	78%
United Details →	STL 17:59 → ORD 19:30UA 1639	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106	8h 33m	93%	78%
United Details →	STL 10:20 → ORD 11:52UA 4517 · flown by GoJet	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334	9h 58m	100%	77%
United Details →	STL 09:20 → ORD 10:52UA 5572 · flown by SkyWest	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577	9h 59m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	STL 09:25 → DEN 10:40WN 3910	1h 05m Denver	DEN 11:45 → SFO 13:27WN 1772	6h 02m	95%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet	56m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106	7h 27m	65%	51%
Southwest Details →	STL 17:35 → BNA 18:45WN 694	50m Nashville	BNA 19:35 → SFO 22:16WN 724	6h 41m	71%	47%
United Details →	STL 14:57 → IAH 17:16UA 5580 · flown by SkyWest	49m Houston	IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341	7h 13m	63%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON