Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2363 STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1492 STL 19:55 → SLC 22:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2363 Delta Flight history →	STL 08:00	SLC 10:12	9%	2%	0.2%	91%
DL 2455 Delta Flight history →	STL 14:30	SLC 16:37	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 1492 Delta Flight history →	STL 19:55	SLC 22:05	14%	4%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON