Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: WN 4132 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet today WN 4132 STS 11:00 → BUR 12:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3115 STS 20:07 → BUR 21:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4132 Southwest	STS 11:00	BUR 12:32	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3991 Southwest Flight history →	STS 11:10	BUR 12:40	12%	3%	0.7%	95%
OO 3156 SkyWest	STS 14:34	BUR 16:10	19%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 3092 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 14:17	BUR 15:45	20%	8%	0.9%	67%
OO 3115 SkyWest	STS 20:07	BUR 21:42	22%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON