Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Santa Rosa); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:27, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Rosa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 16:27 → PHX 18:35AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	6h 21m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STS 16:12 → PHX 18:23AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	53m Phoenix	PHX 19:16 → DFW 23:37AA 556	5h 25m	61%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON