Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:29 pm at Santa Rosa); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3466 at 17:35, 40%.

Nonstops today


AS 3466 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 17:35	LAX 19:15	40%	10%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
AS 3414 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 18:28	LAX 20:04	40%	10%	0.7%	78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 16:27 → PHX 18:35AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	2h 03m Phoenix	PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204	5h 40m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	STS 15:55 → LAS 17:40WN 3992	2h 56m Las Vegas	LAS 20:36 → LAX 21:51WN 481	5h 56m	97%	60%
American Details →	STS 13:00 → PHX 15:09AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Phoenix	PHX 16:45 → LAX 18:12AA 2930	5h 12m	95%	51%
American Details →	STS 13:21 → PHX 14:56AA 4114 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 16:51 → LAX 18:18AA 1331	4h 57m	90%	47%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:52 → SEA 14:55AS 1322	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 17:05 → LAX 19:43AS 1390	6h 51m	97%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	STS 18:40 → PDX 20:28AS 3371 · flown by SkyWest	59m Portland	PDX 21:27 → LAX 23:56AS 1389	5h 16m	59%	44%
Southwest Details →	STS 15:55 → LAS 17:40WN 3992	50m Las Vegas	LAS 18:30 → LAX 19:45WN 2255	3h 50m	67%	42%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:52 → SEA 14:55AS 1322	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → LAX 18:44AS 1300	5h 52m	44%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON