Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3417 STS 07:00 → PDX 08:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3399 STS 15:10 → PDX 16:57 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3417 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 07:00	PDX 08:47	7%	3%	1.3%	92%
OO 3335 SkyWest	STS 08:09	PDX 09:56	11%	8%	1.9%	no record
AS 3009 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 12:05	PDX 13:46	12%	6%	0.9%	94%
OO 3399 SkyWest	STS 15:10	PDX 16:57	14%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 2331 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 19:03	PDX 20:36	49%	21%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON