Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3514 at 13:00, 21%.

Safest bet today AA 3514 STS 13:00 → PHX 15:09 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest AA 6459 STS 16:12 → PHX 18:23 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3514 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 13:00	PHX 15:09	21%	4%	0.5%	52%
AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 16:27	PHX 18:35	26%	7%	0.5%	96%worse than usual
AA 4114 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 13:21	PHX 14:56	29%	4%	0.6%	67%
AA 6459 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 16:12	PHX 18:23	48%	19%	0.5%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON