Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3056 at 13:18, 36%.

Safest bet today OO 3056 STS 13:18 → SNA 15:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3059 STS 17:38 → SNA 19:22 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OO 3056 SkyWest	STS 13:18	SNA 15:03	36%	16%	1.1%	no record
AS 3231 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 16:55	SNA 18:37	37%	11%	1.1%	90%worse than usual
OO 3059 SkyWest	STS 17:38	SNA 19:22	39%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON