Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:04 pm at Charlotte Amalie)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Miami, leaving 16:50, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops today


AA 2743 American Flight history →	STT 14:28	DFW 19:10	31%	8%	1.0%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STT 15:51 → MIA 18:54AA 1391	3h 55m Miami	MIA 22:49 → DFW 00:59 +1AA 2343	10h 08m	100%	75%
American Details →	STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738	1h 58m Miami	MIA 21:52 → DFW 00:05 +1AA 860	8h 15m	97%	71%
American Details →	STT 14:05 → MIA 16:31AA 943	2h 59m Miami	MIA 19:30 → DFW 21:45AA 3104	8h 40m	98%	65%
American Details →	STT 16:46 → CLT 20:55AA 1965	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 22:33 → DFW 00:35 +1AA 2302	8h 49m	86%	59%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161	7h 38m	86%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON