Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:29 pm at Charlotte Amalie); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Miami, leaving 16:38, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STT 16:38 → MIA 19:01AA 1391	3h 14m Miami	MIA 22:15 → IAH 23:59AA 2230	8h 21m	97%	71%
United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 23m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → IAH 00:46 +1UA 1463	9h 01m	90%	67%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	9h 24m	97%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON