Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 pm at Charlotte Amalie); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1768 at 16:31, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1768 Delta Flight history →	STT 16:31	JFK 20:48	17%	4%	0.6%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STT 15:51 → MIA 18:54AA 1391	2h 57m Miami	MIA 21:51 → JFK 00:59 +1AA 944	9h 08m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	9h 17m	96%	70%
JetBlue Details →	STT 15:38 → SJU 16:20B6 435	3h 50m San Juan	SJU 20:10 → JFK 00:07 +1B6 504	8h 29m	97%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON