Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2744 STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2738 STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2744 American Flight history →	STT 13:49	MIA 16:50	10%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 943 American Flight history →	STT 11:17	MIA 13:43	11%	6%	0.6%	84%
AA 1391 American Flight history →	STT 15:51	MIA 18:54	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
AA 2738 American Flight history →	STT 16:50	MIA 19:54	17%	6%	0.6%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON