Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:19 am at Charlotte Amalie)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 435 at 15:38, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


B6 435 JetBlue Flight history →	STT 15:38	SJU 16:20	37%	16%	0.8%	78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744	2h 38m Miami	MIA 19:28 → SJU 22:16AA 3011	8h 27m	98%	74%
American Details →	STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 19:08 → SJU 22:59AA 2830	11h 16m	100%	64%
American Details →	STT 14:28 → DFW 19:10AA 2743	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:47 → SJU 04:39 +1AA 514	14h 11m	97%	62%
Delta Details →	STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	9h 08m	87%	54%
Southwest Details →	STT 14:45 → MCO 17:50WN 3995	3h 35m Orlando	MCO 21:25 → SJU 00:26 +1WN 210	9h 41m	98%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON