Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5659 SUN 07:10 → DEN 09:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5268 SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5659 SkyWest	SUN 07:10	DEN 09:19	6%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5712 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 07:00	DEN 08:58	6%	4%	0.6%	93%
UA 5268 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 14:38	DEN 16:45	11%	5%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON