Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:50 am at Hailey); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 15:15, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops today


UA 6008 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 15:22	LAX 17:00	9%	4%	0.5%	93%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	5h 57m	99%	77%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Denver	DEN 19:50 → LAX 21:25UA 1460	7h 47m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON