Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:15 am at Hailey)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


AS 2325 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SUN 10:20	SEA 11:14	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2327 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SUN 19:43	SEA 20:35	53%	5%	5.0%	47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	6h 23m	99%	73%
United Details →	SUN 15:21 → LAX 16:59UA 6008 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 19:07 → SEA 22:00UA 684	7h 39m	98%	66%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Denver	DEN 19:19 → SEA 21:25UA 2767	7h 47m	95%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON