Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5423 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 07:40	SFO 08:59	13%	4%	0.4%	48%
OO 5693 SkyWest	SUN 09:14	SFO 10:42	15%	6%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27DL 4037 · flown by SkyWest	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 43m	98%	79%
United Details →	SUN 08:00 → LAX 09:34UA 6053 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 11:01 → SFO 12:42UA 2199	5h 42m	97%	78%
United Details →	SUN 07:00 → DEN 08:58UA 5712 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 04m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	4h 02m	90%	72%
United Details →	SUN 15:21 → LAX 16:59UA 6008 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 18:59 → SFO 20:40UA 2837	6h 19m	98%	68%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Denver	DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389	7h 42m	95%	66%
Alaska Details →	SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 13:52 → SFO 16:01AS 688	6h 41m	100%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SUN 19:43 → SEA 20:35AS 2327 · flown by Horizon	59m Seattle	SEA 21:34 → SFO 23:41AS 410	4h 58m	45%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON