Today: AA 2730 at 11:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet today AA 2730 SYR 11:53 → CLT 13:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2482 SYR 19:40 → CLT 21:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 2730 American Flight history →	SYR 11:53	CLT 13:59	14%	4%	0.4%	93%
AA 3080 American Flight history →	SYR 12:15	CLT 14:24	14%	4%	0.4%	80%
AA 1950 American	SYR 16:32	CLT 18:41	17%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 2759 American Flight history →	SYR 19:34	CLT 21:44	25%	8%	1.8%	65%
AA 2482 American	SYR 19:40	CLT 21:52	25%	8%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON