Today: OH 5394 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet today OH 5394 SYR 05:46 → DCA 07:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5418 SYR 20:28 → DCA 22:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5394 PSA	SYR 05:46	DCA 07:29	8%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 4056 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SYR 06:03	DCA 07:34	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
MQ 4223 Envoy	SYR 12:03	DCA 13:38	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4555 Republic	SYR 17:42	DCA 19:32	22%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 5589 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SYR 13:18	DCA 14:52	35%	11%	1.5%	47%
AA 5418 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SYR 20:28	DCA 22:00	37%	26%	1.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON