Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 513 SYR 08:14 → DEN 10:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 453 SYR 16:15 → DEN 18:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 513 United	SYR 08:14	DEN 10:14	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1320 United Flight history →	SYR 08:15	DEN 10:05	11%	2%	0.4%	87%
UA 2651 United	SYR 16:27	DEN 18:32	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 453 United Flight history →	SYR 16:15	DEN 18:05	18%	4%	0.4%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SYR 07:30 → ORD 08:49AA 4134 · flown by Envoy	53m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → DEN 11:14AA 2363	5h 44m	87%	75%
Delta Details →	SYR 13:42 → DTW 15:17DL 3533 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431	5h 45m	89%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON