Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Syracuse); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: 9E 5278 at 17:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops today


9E 5278 Endeavor	SYR 17:20	DTW 18:53	9%	4%	0.3%	no record
DL 3565 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SYR 17:16	DTW 18:52	20%	6%	0.4%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SYR 17:49 → ORD 19:05UA 1067	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	6h 05m	90%	82%
Delta Details →	SYR 18:54 → ATL 21:28DL 2690	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	6h 05m	89%	62%
American Details →	SYR 19:34 → CLT 21:44AA 2759	1h 09m Charlotte	CLT 22:53 → DTW 00:46 +1AA 2988	5h 12m	84%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON