Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 5821 SYR 12:07 → LGA 13:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5841 SYR 12:16 → LGA 13:37 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


YX 5821 Republic	SYR 12:07	LGA 13:29	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 5841 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SYR 12:16	LGA 13:37	26%	10%	0.5%	76%
DL 5062 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 18:06	LGA 19:24	33%	15%	10.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON