Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:29 pm at Syracuse); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: B6 2655 at 16:30, 43%.

Nonstops today


B6 2655 JetBlue Flight history →	SYR 16:30	MCO 18:59	43%	23%	0.8%	71%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SYR 17:49 → ORD 19:05UA 1067	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 20:20 → MCO 00:06 +1UA 617	6h 17m	87%	64%
Delta Details →	SYR 18:54 → ATL 21:28DL 2690	57m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	5h 04m	82%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON