tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:33 pm at Syracuse); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 16:15, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Syracuse). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SYR 16:15 → DEN 18:05UA 453 2h 49m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 8h 44m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SYR 17:16 → DTW 18:52DL 3565 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Detroit DTW 21:02 → MSP 21:54DL 8815 5h 38m 92% 69%
UnitedDetails → SYR 17:49 → ORD 19:05UA 1067 2h 23m Chicago ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131 6h 21m 91% 66%
DeltaDetails → SYR 15:46 → ATL 18:11DL 2991 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280 6h 52m 93% 62%
AmericanDetails → SYR 20:19 → ORD 21:49AA 6398 · flown by SkyWest 49m Chicago ORD 22:38 → MSP 00:07 +1AA 2865 4h 48m 76% 47%
AmericanDetails → SYR 14:53 → PHL 15:41AA 5825 · flown by Piedmont 3h 04m Philadelphia PHL 18:45 → MSP 20:58AA 3263 7h 05m 96% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SYR 20:19 → ORD 21:49AA 6398 · flown by SkyWest 47m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 5h 03m 74% 65%
UnitedDetails → SYR 17:49 → ORD 19:05UA 1067 52m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 4h 52m 70% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON