Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Syracuse); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: PT 6082 at 19:43 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops today


PT 6082 Piedmont	SYR 19:43	PHL 21:12	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
OH 5153 PSA	SYR 18:33	PHL 19:49	26%	8%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SYR 17:16 → DTW 18:52DL 3565 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	6h 00m	95%	76%
United Details →	SYR 17:49 → ORD 19:05UA 1067	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	7h 08m	90%	74%
American Details →	SYR 16:56 → ORD 18:14AA 3819 · flown by Envoy	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → PHL 00:23 +1AA 3177	7h 27m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	SYR 18:54 → ATL 21:28DL 2690	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 05m	89%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON