Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3999 at 10:00, 26%.

Safest bet today WN 3999 TPA 10:00 → AUS 11:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 3508 TPA 18:59 → AUS 20:52 · 65% chance 15+ min late

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3999 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:00	AUS 11:30	26%	3%	0.2%	80%
WN 4140 Southwest	TPA 10:10	AUS 11:47	28%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:44	AUS 14:26	40%	8%	0.5%	83%worse than usual
WN 2132 Southwest	TPA 14:55	AUS 16:33	48%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3734 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TPA 19:51	AUS 21:58	58%	17%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
WN 3062 Southwest	TPA 18:35	AUS 20:11	62%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 4001 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 18:55	AUS 20:25	62%	11%	0.3%	28%
OO 3508 SkyWest	TPA 18:59	AUS 20:52	65%	18%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON