tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:58 am at Tampa); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28% (calm day: 16%). Best bet: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:18, 81% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → MSP 17:38DL 2696 2h 22m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → BDL 23:39DL 2871 8h 21m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735 6h 45m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 13:44 → ATL 15:23DL 1099 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504 7h 35m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:39 → ATL 18:17DL 1720 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011 7h 15m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:31 → BDL 22:56DL 2765 7h 38m 93% 69%
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223 3h 30m Chicago ORD 18:10 → BDL 21:33UA 516 9h 03m 95% 68%
AmericanDetails → TPA 13:59 → ORD 15:57AA 2920 3h 07m Chicago ORD 19:04 → BDL 22:26AA 1453 8h 27m 97% 67%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 15:20 → BWI 17:45WN 941 1h 42m Baltimore BWI 19:27 → BDL 20:47WN 19 5h 27m 86% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:51 → CLT 18:49AA 2784 59m Charlotte CLT 19:48 → BDL 21:48AA 2169 4h 57m 59% 36%
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:59 → DCA 21:25AA 2773 1h 07m Washington DCA 22:32 → BDL 23:59AA 5028 · flown by PSA 5h 00m 55% 34%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 18:53 → JFK 21:45B6 26 55m New York JFK 22:40 → BDL 23:59B6 675 5h 06m 44% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON