Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2406 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2406 TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 592 TPA 14:52 → BOS 17:54 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2406 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:00	BOS 10:09	12%	3%	0.8%	95%
B6 1192 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 06:30	BOS 09:33	14%	5%	1.0%	89%
B6 892 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 09:49	BOS 12:51	15%	6%	0.8%	81%
DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:23	BOS 14:35	16%	4%	0.8%	78%
B6 692 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 11:22	BOS 14:26	21%	10%	0.8%	69%
B6 392 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 12:18	BOS 15:27	25%	11%	0.8%	69%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:35	BOS 23:47	26%	12%	1.2%	72%
B6 592 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 14:52	BOS 17:54	35%	16%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON