Today: F9 2684 at 10:07 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–39%.

Safest bet today F9 2684 TPA 10:07 → CLE 12:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 2184 TPA 21:52 → CLE 00:27 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2684 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 10:07	CLE 12:44	20%	8%	0.9%	86%
F9 1832 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:49	CLE 16:29	26%	10%	0.9%	77%
F9 1492 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 17:43	CLE 20:22	38%	11%	1.0%	73%worse than usual
F9 2184 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 21:52	CLE 00:27	39%	15%	1.8%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON