Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1406 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1406 TPA 06:05 → DAL 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4014 TPA 16:20 → DAL 17:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1406 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 06:05	DAL 07:35	7%	2%	0.8%	92%
WN 1412 Southwest	TPA 06:30	DAL 08:11	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:00	DAL 10:30	16%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 19 Southwest	TPA 09:10	DAL 10:51	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4015 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 21:30	DAL 22:55	33%	9%	0.8%	45%
WN 4014 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 16:20	DAL 17:55	35%	9%	0.8%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON