Today: AA 2385 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet today AA 2385 TPA 06:54 → DCA 09:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 324 TPA 15:55 → DCA 18:20 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2385 American Flight history →	TPA 06:54	DCA 09:15	9%	3%	0.4%	100%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	TPA 08:05	DCA 10:26	13%	4%	0.4%	93%
AA 1972 American	TPA 11:40	DCA 14:10	21%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 4016 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:45	DCA 12:05	21%	3%	0.3%	84%
AA 2775 American Flight history →	TPA 10:38	DCA 12:59	23%	5%	0.5%	75%
WN 4161 Southwest	TPA 10:05	DCA 12:26	24%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 1990 American	TPA 13:34	DCA 15:53	28%	8%	0.4%	no record
AA 2837 American Flight history →	TPA 13:32	DCA 15:58	31%	8%	0.4%	76%
AA 3310 American	TPA 19:01	DCA 21:21	37%	14%	1.8%	no record
AA 2773 American Flight history →	TPA 18:59	DCA 21:25	38%	14%	1.3%	55%
WN 526 Southwest	TPA 15:55	DCA 18:14	39%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 324 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 15:55	DCA 18:20	40%	14%	0.4%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON