Today: DL 808 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet today DL 808 TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2587 TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 808 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:30	DTW 11:08	8%	2%	0.2%	93%
F9 1035 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:53	DTW 10:41	16%	6%	0.8%	87%
DL 2852 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:41	DTW 13:23	18%	3%	0.2%	85%
DL 1243 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:05	DTW 20:53	27%	9%	0.8%	67%
DL 2587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 14:00	DTW 16:48	28%	6%	0.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON