Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 1906 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day B6 1906 TPA 07:38 → FLL 08:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4022 TPA 16:30 → FLL 17:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1906 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:38	FLL 08:43	11%	3%	1.0%	91%
B6 2076 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 17:36	FLL 18:42	30%	12%	1.3%	72%
WN 4022 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 16:30	FLL 17:35	33%	8%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON