Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2491 at 07:15, 12%.

Safest bet that day UA 2491 TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1834 TPA 17:25 → IAH 18:52 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2491 United Flight history →	TPA 07:15	IAH 08:42	12%	5%	0.8%	94%
UA 2319 United Flight history →	TPA 09:15	IAH 10:42	15%	5%	0.8%	91%
UA 1979 United Flight history →	TPA 11:43	IAH 13:24	18%	5%	0.8%	90%
UA 2421 United Flight history →	TPA 11:55	IAH 13:22	19%	5%	0.8%	89%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	TPA 17:25	IAH 18:52	36%	10%	1.3%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON