Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3023 at 20:55, 38%.

Safest bet today WN 3023 TPA 20:55 → IND 23:20 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest WN 776 TPA 12:50 → IND 15:13 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3023 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:55	IND 23:20	38%	13%	0.6%	52%
WN 976 Southwest	TPA 21:30	IND 23:54	38%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 776 Southwest	TPA 12:50	IND 15:13	38%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON