Today: DL 2475 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–48%.

Safest bet today DL 2475 TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 26 TPA 18:53 → JFK 21:45 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2475 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:05	JFK 09:51	5%	1%	0.2%	94%
B6 126 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 06:13	JFK 09:00	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
B6 626 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 09:15	JFK 12:01	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 732 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:10	JFK 13:58	16%	4%	0.2%	76%
DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:11	JFK 13:48	19%	4%	0.2%	87%
B6 226 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 10:25	JFK 13:10	20%	7%	0.6%	69%
DL 2095 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:59	JFK 23:03	26%	9%	1.2%	45%
DL 1520 Delta	TPA 19:54	JFK 22:31	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
B6 2726 JetBlue	TPA 14:42	JFK 17:28	35%	15%	0.8%	no record
B6 26 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 18:53	JFK 21:45	48%	22%	1.8%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON