Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4174 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4174 TPA 06:25 → LAS 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1257 TPA 22:40 → LAS 00:19 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4174 Southwest	TPA 06:25	LAS 08:03	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4326 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 06:40	LAS 08:15	5%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 1809 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:30	LAS 12:10	20%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 4216 Southwest	TPA 16:00	LAS 17:46	33%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 660 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 19:35	LAS 21:15	33%	12%	0.8%	42%
F9 1257 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 22:40	LAS 00:19	39%	22%	3.2%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	6h 35m	95%	86%
Southwest Details →	TPA 06:05 → DAL 07:35WN 1406	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	6h 30m	95%	85%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:30 → HOU 06:45WN 4023	55m Houston	HOU 07:40 → LAS 08:51WN 2705	6h 21m	91%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON