Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1851 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1851 TPA 07:06 → MDW 08:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2746 TPA 17:10 → MDW 18:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1851 Southwest	TPA 07:06	MDW 08:54	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4031 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 05:20	MDW 07:00	10%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 2869 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 08:00	MDW 09:40	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 4444 Southwest	TPA 11:05	MDW 12:53	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4033 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:45	MDW 12:25	15%	4%	0.7%	78%
WN 4035 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 22:30	MDW 00:10	27%	9%	0.9%	69%
WN 2746 Southwest	TPA 17:10	MDW 18:58	39%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON