Today: DL 2263 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–23%.

Safest bet today DL 2263 TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2264 TPA 18:37 → MSP 21:17 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2263 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:45	MSP 10:02	9%	3%	0.3%	92%
DL 2696 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:18	MSP 17:38	17%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 2301 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:31	MSP 14:53	20%	5%	0.3%	82%
DL 2264 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:37	MSP 21:17	23%	9%	0.8%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048	1h 05m St Louis	STL 08:15 → MSP 09:45WN 3961	4h 55m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON